Archive for February 2011



BUDGET 2011

Written by HARIKRISHNAN.T
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Market showed a positive trend today due to the positive policies which is taken by the Finance minister in the Union Budget.

Sensex went up to more than 400 levels and finally closed about 122 points in green.

Nifty closed 29 points above in green.

There is a chance for a positive trend in this week because Budget give provision for making investments in mutual funds by FII.

No tax changes in oil sector.

Service tax on air travel will increase. This affected jet airways etc in a negative way.

No excise duty on equipment for ultra mega power plants. So reliance power closed in green.

Cement price will go down.

Recapitalisation of Rs 6000cr positive for all Public sector Banks. SBI, PNB etc showed positive trend.

10% excise duty on garments.

LIC Housing finance can touch up to Rs.210/- in this scenario.

IT sector showed negative trend.

Regards Hari " लोका समस्ता सुखिनो भवन्तु "



MARKET IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK

Written by HARIKRISHNAN.T
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Market in the previous week started with a positive note. Monday sensex closed 200 points and nifty 60 points up. Nifty closed above the 5500 level.

But there was completely negative trend occurred in Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday

In Tuesday sensex went down about 142 points, Wednesday about 117 points and in Thursday a major fall occurred and it closed 545 points in red.

Nifty went down to 5262 range from 5500 level during the 3 consecutive days of trade.

But nifty managed the major support level of 5200.

The main reasons for the negative trend was the inconsistency in the countries like Libia, crude oil price etc. If the revolt is spread to gulf countries then naturally the crude oil price will shoot up. Due to this negative news the investors withdraw their funds from the system.

The crude oil price went up to $120 during Thursday. These all affected market in a negative way.

But Friday the Economic survey helped the market.
The expected 9% growth helped the market to close in green.

Now all the investors are waiting for the union budget. It will be presented in the cabinet on 28/02/2011 Monday.

The flow of market will surely depend on the decisions in the budget.

If there is sufficient remedial measures to control inflation, black money, corruptions etc. then definitely there will be a positive trend in the market.

Regards Hari " लोका समस्ता सुखिनो भवन्तु "



BEST STOCK PICKS FOR NEXT WEEK

Written by HARIKRISHNAN.T
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Domestic markets ended on a positive note on Friday.

Sensex and Nifty closed in green.

The gains were supported by the short covering in the most beaten down stocks in the previous sessions. 

It seems that the markets were in a mood to consolidate today and wait for the budget day to happen next week.

I think for the next week LIC housing finance will give better profit.

Yesterday when market crashed due to the global issues especially because of the high price of crude oil and inflationary issues, it came upto Rs.179.

Today it is closed in Rs.184 in green.

I expect it will touch 200 range within 2 weeks, because it touched 200 range just a week ago.

So BUY LIC housing finance at a range Rs.185.

Regards Hari " लोका समस्ता सुखिनो भवन्तु "



RAILWAY BUDGET

Written by HARIKRISHNAN.T
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Railways Minister Mamata Banerjee vowed to support the "common people" as she unveiled her third annual budget on Friday that promised to invest Rs 57,630 crore (USD 12.68 billion) in the network in the financial year 2011/12.


Mamata Banerjee, an ally of the ruling Congress party, pushed private sector involvement in the network with initiatives such as setting up wagon factories with private partners. She also unveiled plans for a 700 MW captive gas-based power plant.


But, with an eye on winning elections later this year in West Bengal that would shore up support for a government under fire over a string of corruption scandals, she kept focus on making the network affordable for the common man.

Regards Hari " लोका समस्ता सुखिनो भवन्तु "



MARKET CRASHED TODAY BECAUSE OF GLOBAL ISSUES

Written by HARIKRISHNAN.T
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Indian equity benchmarks continued the downtrend for the second consecutive session on the back of a fall in European markets and a further rise in crude oil prices.

The Nifty ended below the 5450 level on Wednesday.

Indices were quite choppy since morning but slipped into the red in the last one hour of trade.

Crude oil inched up 2.5% to USD 96.08 a barrel today - its highest level since October 2008.

On growing fears that the unrest in Libya could spread to other top oil producers in the region and cut output further.

Violent clashes in Libya have resulted in at least three oil companies halting output in Africa's third-largest producer, which pumps 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), or nearly 2% of global supply.

But RIL showed a positive trend due to their contract with British Petroleum, This helped the market to maintain the support level of 5400.

Regards Hari "लोका समस्ता सुखिनो भवन्तु  "



SEMINAR ON INVESTMENT STRATEGIES

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There was a seminar which is related to various investment strategies jointly organised by Geojit BNP Paribas, Malayala manorama Sambadhyam and BSE held on Saturday Feb 19.

Dr.V.K.Vijayakumar, the Investment strategist of Geojit and Mr.Rohit Rajashekhar, deputy manager of BSE took the classes.

They said

Big money is made through intelligent investing.

Investment of Rs.9500 in Infosys in 1994 is now worth around Rs.3.9 crore.

100 shares of Infosys in 1994 is now about 12800 shares.

Investment of Rs.1lakh in Birla sunlife tax relief '96 in march 1996 gave a return of 21.6 lakhs as dividend alone in June 2008.

Dividends are not included in tax.

Investments in bluechips or diversified funds fulfil investors expectation in the long run.

The ERLI principle is very important in the share market.

Early
Regularly
Long term perspective
Intelligently

When the return increases, risk factor also increases.

Rs.1.8 lakhs invested in HFCL 20 years ago is now worth only Rs.900.

To mitigate risk, invest in stocks&mutual funds with proven track record.

India is developing very rapidly.

India is the youngest population in age.

In the coming years the growth will be driven by
       
          1) Favourable demographics.
          2) High savings and investment rates.
          3) Explosion of entrepreneurial talents.
          4) Globally competitive companies.
          5) Emergence of Indian MNC.

We expect a net profit of 20 lakh crores by all companies in India by 2030.

It was only 6400 crores in 1980's

Sensex will be in the 75000 range by 2020.

NEVER BORROW MONEY TO INVEST.

The class was a nice experience especially for those new investors in share market like me.

Regards Hari " लोका समस्ता सुखिनो भवन्तु "



PRE BUDGET RALLY

Written by HARIKRISHNAN.T
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Pre Budget rally may take the Nifty above 5600 range.

Today was a strong session in the market.

The indices started with a small key start but the positive trend in the system put on a smart rally. Nifty close 64 points in green and Sensex 200 points in green.

5800 level is possible before or after the budget.

Infrastructure Development Finance Company (IDFC) was the top gainer on the Nifty today. The share closed at Rs 145.65, up Rs 7.00, or 5.05% with volumes of 1,412,449 shares. 

It touched an intraday high of Rs 146.60 and an intraday low of Rs 139.65.

In my view I'm positive on V-guard.

Buy V-guard in 160-165 range. 

Target Rs.175 (Duration 2 weeks)

Regards Hari " लोका समस्ता सुखिनो भवन्तु"



OPTIMISM IN GLOBAL MARKET

Written by HARIKRISHNAN.T
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Optimism in global markets and investor confidence have contributed significantly in creating a bullish impact on market in the run up to the budget. 

If Nifty holds the current range of 5380-5400, then I think we should expect the markets to move to around 5600 levels, probably around post budget.

Today market did no show a powerful trend. Nifty was flat. It closed just 0.7 points up. Same thing in Sensex, it closed just 27 points in green.

There is a chance for a Rally in the market. There are several reasons for saying that.

Actually for the past 3 weeks the FII's were withdrawing funds from Indian market due to the various negative issues. 

But Monday a great come back happened in the market. 

FIIs again started to make investments in the market. 

In a single day they made investment of about 228 crores in the system.

This is a positive note.

Also the policies from the Government's side to control the inflation made remarkable change in the attitude of investors.

So this is the best time to invest and multiply your asset.

Many successful analysts are advising to buy Yes bank.

Yes Bank is at a stage where ICICI Bank or HDFC Bank was probably 5 years back.

So I think that it can give a 30-35% kind of an upside from current levels.

Regards Hari " लोका समस्ता सुखिनो भवन्तु "



A BRILLIANT START FOR MARKET

Written by HARIKRISHNAN.T
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A fantastic beginning for Indian market.

Asian markets trading high. Nikkei up.

Experts says that there is a chance for a positive rally.

Sensex trading at 200 points up and Nifty 67 points up.

So it is a time for taking the right decision.

I advise any level below 5400 and 18000 are the best level for buying the shares.

Regards Hari " लोका समस्ता सुखिनो भवन्तु "



BEST STOCK PICKS FOR NEXT WEEK

Written by HARIKRISHNAN.T
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GAIL(Gas Authority of India Limited) is one of the share I advised to buy in the coming week.

GAIL (India) Limited, is India's flagship Natural Gas company, integrating all aspects of the Natural Gas value chain (including Exploration & Production, Processing, Transmission, Distribution and Marketing) and its related services.

I advise to buy the share in the range of Rs.445-Rs.450 with a stop loss of Rs.430.

Target Rs.465 (duration 2weeks).

Regards Hari " लोका समस्ता सुखिनो भवन्तु "



MARKET REVIEW

Written by HARIKRISHNAN.T
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Lets examine what had happened in the market in past one week.

Past one week was very drastic for Indian market.

The news which is related to 2G spectrum, rumours about Anil Ambani's group, Industrial growth etc. negatively affected our market.

Feb 07-2011 Monday was a Flat day for Indian market.

Sensex opened at 18315 and closed at 18037, 29.04 points in green .

Nifty at the same time opened at 5430.15 and closed at 5396.00, 0.25 points in green.

Feb 08-2011 Tuesday was a dreadful day. Sensex closed 261 points below and Nifty -ve 83.45 points.

The major shares like L&T, Axis bank, SBI etc. all closed in red.

The same thing happened in Wednesday also. Large selling pressure occurred from the investors and Sensex closed 182.93 points in red and Nifty closed 59.00 points in red.

Rumours about Anil Ambani's group seriously affected the market. Reliance Infra went down about 18.79%, Reliance communication down about 14.32%, Reliance power 8.93% etc. The group gave complaint to SEBI.

Thursday and Friday was much better for the market.

The investors buy shares in the lower range and that helped the market to retain the crucial 5200 support level.

Friday all of us expected a negative trend because of the negative news about our Industrial growth and Friday market. But due to the positive trend in Asian market and world market, the market closed in green.

Sensex closed 265.57 points up and Nifty closed 84.20 points up.
 
If Nifty can maintain the crucial 5200 support level in the next week, then we can expect a positive trend.

If Nifty break that 5200 level, then it may come up to 4800 levels.

Regards Hari " लोका समस्ता सुखिनो भवन्तु "




Todays Market

Written by HARIKRISHNAN.T
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Indian equity benchmarks closed at seven-month lows on Tuesday and underperformed the global markets by shedding more than 260 points on the Sensex. 

The Nifty managed to hold the 5300 level as it touched an intraday low of 5,303.40, dragged down by almost all sectors.

Market may pause at 5100 range.
We need a strong Global support in this scenario.

Auto and Banks may drag the market further. This is a very important point. 

Because today State bank of India closed Rs.31 below,State bank of trvancore closed Rs.13 below,SIB closed Rs.0.45 below, Axis bank closed Rs.36 below and my favourite Yes bank closed in Rs.12 below in Red.

Similarly Tata motors closed Rs.35 below in red.Hero honda closed about Rs.70 below in red.

Do not panic in this situation. The situation will be ok within a few months.

I think tomorrow's market will be positive because the annual growth rate of our country showed a significant increase.

So if tomorrow's market is positive, make correct decisions. Sell the yes bank at 265.

Regards Hari " लोका समस्ता सुखिनो भवन्तु "



BEST STOCK PICKS FOR NEXT WEEK

Written by HARIKRISHNAN.T
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Buy Bharti Airtel in the range 340.

Bharti Airtel (Bharti) reported its financial results for 3QFY11. 

The company has a subscriber market share of 20.3% in India versus 20.8% as on 2QFY11. 

With increasing competition the market share continues to decline for Bharti. 

However the revenue market share for Bharti is at 30.6% as on 2QFY11.

Bharti reported strong Quarterly Revenue growth during the third quarter driven by stabilizing operating metrics and good operational performance in Africa.

(An increase of a company's sales when compared to a previous quarter's revenue performance is called the Quarterly Revenue growth.)

TARGET Rs.400/-

Regards Hari " लोका समस्ता सुखिनो भवन्तु "



Disastrous close to the trading week

Written by HARIKRISHNAN.T
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It was a disastrous close to the trading week. 

High selling pressure from the investors dragged the Nifty below the very Important 5400 level.
The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 441.16 points or 2.39%, to close at 18,008.15.

50-share NSE Nifty tanked 131 points or 2.37%, to settle at 5,395.75. 

Yesterday I predicted that there will be a negative trend I did not expect such a fall.

Investment Advisor, Gul Tekchandani says that even if the downside is restricted at 5300, after budget they will get stable and once again there might be little bit of up tick from there on.

Mitesh Tacker, Technical Analyst is optimistic that the markets are likely to bounce back to 5620-5650, as long as they remain above 5400.

However, Amit Dalal, Tata investment Corp thinks that the sharp fall in the markets are due to infrastructure and credit squeeze in the system because of lack of government’s spending.

Top Losers include Mahindra and Mahindra, Kotak mahindra, Sun pharma, ITC, L&T etc.

The stock picks for next week will be published before Monday after analysing the market trends.

Regards Hari " लोका समस्ता सुखिनो भवन्तु "



SHORT COVERING HELPED INDIAN MARKET

Written by HARIKRISHNAN.T
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Short covering helped Indian market and added 359 points on Sensex at close.

It was a fantastic session for Indian equities and was a continuation of up trend for the second consecutive day after a deep cut seen in previous five days. 

Reliance Industries, Bharti, SBI, DLF, L&T and BHEL pulled the Nifty above 5500 - an important psychological level.

Yes bank and Axis bank, the 2 shares I advised to buy 2 days before showed a spectacular rise.

Tomorrow is Friday so I expect there is a negative trend in the market.

Dhanlaxmi Bank is one of the shares I prefer for tomorrow.

Today it closed Rs.7.65 up in Rs.105.75. So Buy Dhanlaxmi bank in the range 99-102 and sell in the range 105-110

If you are holding the share for at least one year, I expect 30% to 40% profit. Because it gone above Rs.200.

But do not take much risk in this condition. Sell when you get 10% to 12% profit.

The share picks for the next week will be published soon.

Regards Hari " लोका समस्ता सुखिनो भवन्तु "



PRE BUDGET PICKS

Written by HARIKRISHNAN.T
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Sensex closed 305 points below in 18022.

Nifty closed 88 below in 5417.

Do not expect a perfect bullish trend for at least 2 weeks.

I think Nifty will be in the 5300-5400 range before budget.

There are not enough 'Foreign Institutional Investor' supports looking possible as we run into the budget.

So for short time investment I prefer Yes bank and Axis bank.

Yes bank is a good fundamental company and it has a strong managerial support.

In this negative trend Yes bank closed in green today. Yesterday also the trend for yes bank was positive.
So buy yes bank in the range 260 and sell in the range 270-275.

I think a best opportunity for buying will appear before the budget. So till that do not take much risk and do not expect much profit.

Another good pick is Axis bank.

Now the share price is in the range 1250. 

Buy axis bank in the range 1250 and sell in the range 1300. In January the share price was in between 1357 and 1250.

If you are a long time investor it is the best time to buy RIL. Now it is in 890 range.

Regards Hari " लोका समस्ता सुखिनो भवन्तु "