Archive for 2015

Inclusive Growth and Transformation in Financial Services - Positioning the financial system towards inclusive growth and development

Being the second most populous country in the world, India has enormous potential to become the global power house. Even though we have come a long way, the bigger hurdles are yet to overcome. One of them is poverty. Amartya Sen once said "Poverty is not just lack of money. It is not having the capability to realize one's full potential as a human being". The government has been trying to address the issue of poverty since independence, but still one third of our population is below the poverty line. This poses a question - Is addressing poverty is that difficult? Or are we addressing it in a wrong way?

The conventional approach of government towards addressing the issue of poverty is through subsidies and public distribution system.

But the majority of the spending gets absorbed into our complex bureaucratic system through corruption, red-tapism, and implementation delays. Transforming the bureaucratic regime is a cumbersome process. Is there any other alternate way where we can address the issue of poverty and achieve the sustainable development of our nation?

The one word solution is "Inclusive growth through financial inclusion"

Inclusive growth can be defined as providing equitable opportunities and a level playing field to all citizens thereby sharing the benefits of economic growth even handedly. Financial inclusion is the stepping stone towards achieving inclusive growth.

Leveraging the hidden potential of the bottom of the pyramid section of our nation

As per the Rangarajan Committee report on financial inclusion, financial inclusion can be defined as “the process of ensuring access to financial services and timely and adequate credit where needed by vulnerable groups such as weaker sections and low income groups at an affordable cost”. In India, the concept of financial inclusion was introduced a decade back by Mr. K C Chakrabarty. Mangalam, a small village from the state of Tamil Nadu was the first to be brought under the financial inclusion plan and subsequently banking services were provided to all the villagers.

Financial inclusion can act as a stepping stone towards inclusive growth because of the following reasons.

1. It provides a level playing field where one can access the formal financial system for borrowing and lending.

2. The cost of borrowing will reduce drastically and as a result economic growth and prosperity will be achieved.

3. It promotes the saving habits of people thereby increasing the capital formation of the nation.

4. It will help in increased transparency, elimination of middlemen and facilitate huge inflow of money into the formal banking system.

5. It will act as an impetus in eliminating poverty, unemployment and income inequalities in the long run.
It’s now the time to consider the current financial inclusion statistics of India

  Figure 01 - Source of data – World Bank, The global Findex database 2014
Key observations from the report

Nearly half of the population in India still does not have access to formal financial institution. The situation is even bleaker when it comes to females and the poorest section of the society.

As per the policy research working paper published by World Bank, less than 5 percent of adults around the world reported borrowing from a private informal lender. But in India, the percentage of borrowing from private informal lender is a whopping 12.56%. The percentage of informal borrowing increases when it comes to rural areas (15.36%) and people without having primary education (16.14%).

Education level positively influences people in taking decisions. Almost 64 percent of people who have completed secondary education have an account at a financial institution and only 8.51% of people who possess secondary education or more borrowed from a private informal lender.

From these figures it is evident that the current situation is not so encouraging.

What have we done so far? - Transformation in the financial services

The recent announcement from the central bank giving fresh banking licenses almost after a decade to two entities (IDFC and Bandhan Finance) with a strict rural focus can be seen as a welcome move. At the same time the introduction of payment banks, small savings banks, white label ATMs and Digital Banking are going to act as stimulants. Another major transformation can be achieved through JAM Trinity

JAM trinity refers to Jan Dhan Yojana, Aadhar and Mobile. This is going to be one of the biggest path-breaking reforms, if implemented effectively and will act as a pillar in achieving financial inclusion and inclusive development. It can deliver the subsidy and other benefits to people directly thereby eliminating the inefficient distribution of subsidies.

Challenges & Road ahead

It is laudable that the government has already taken significant steps in achieving financial inclusion. But there are several challenges also.

As per the latest financial stability report from RBI, credit growth of scheduled commercial banks (SCB) is at 9.7 percent and the deposits growth is at 12.9 percent which is way below compared to past time. At the same time the gross NPAs of SCBs is at 4.6 percent. These problems can have adverse impacts on achieving equality in credit disbursements and government should formulate viable solutions to tackle these issues.

      Figure 02 – Credit growth & Deposit growth Source – Financial Stability Report, RBI


Under Pradhan Mantri Jan-Dhan Yojana, we have opened 18.47 crores of accounts (11.21 crores in rural areas, as on 23-09-2015). But the success of this scheme will depend on how often people make transactions using these accounts. This is extremely important considering the fact that India has a dormancy rate of 43 percent and accounts for about 195 million of the 460 million dormant accounts around the world. As per the latest statistics, around 41.31 percent of the accounts which is opened under PMJDY scheme have zero balance. Even though we have witnessed a dramatic reduction in the zero balance accounts over the last year (Refer Figure 03), the government should work more in order to bring all the people under the umbrella of the formal financial system.


Achieving financial inclusion by transforming the financial services is the best way to make people competitive across all the sections of society and thereby achieving inclusive development. Of course this will take time and we should not depend on short term fixes. As the honorable governor of the RBI, Raghuram Rajan pointed out “We have to have the discipline to stick to our strategy of building the necessary institutions and creating a new path of sustainable growth where Jugaad is no longer needed. For this, what we need is the understanding and cooperation, not impatience and pressure for quick impossible fixes. Only then can we realize our true potential as a nation.

Regards,
Harikrishnan
Views are personal

References

New Bankruptcy code – Correcting the equation

Capitalism or free market system can be considered as the most effective way to coordinate production and distribution. Even though India is considered as a mixed economy, we as a nation cannot ignore the importance of free markets because on one side mixed economy combines the elements of both free markets with state interventionism and on the other side we are in the process of moving towards capitalism with ebullient force. There is an old saying that capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell!  Even though we have come a long way, the bankruptcy proceedings in India are still an incommodious affair. The issues that the Indian banking industry faces over the years can be linked to the inefficiency of existing rules and regulations.

Indian banking industry is going through a very challenging phase. Credit growth of all SCBs declined to 9.4 percent from 9.7 percent while the growth in deposits also declined to 9.9 percent from 10.7 percent between March 2015 and September 2015. The capital to risk weighted assets ratio (CRAR) declined to 12.7 percent from 13 percent. Gross non-performing advances (GNPAs) of all SCBs increased to 5.1 percent from 4.6 percent whereas the net non-performing advances also witnessed an increase from 2.5 percent to 2.8 percent. Significant portion of the stressed assets accumulated in five sectors. They are mining, iron & steel, textiles, infrastructure and aviation. These sectors constitute 24.2 percent of total advances and a whopping 53 percent of total stressed assets.

The capital is really scarce in a developing country like India and therefore it should be allocated in such a way that it benefits all the participants. ‘Allocational efficiency’ occurs when market participants obtain capital that can be used for the most productive purposes thereby spreading opportunities and stimulating economic growth.

But unfortunately it can be observed from the above statistics that we need a strong regulatory infrastructure in place in order to provide equal opportunities to all. This can in turn lead to creative destruction that revolutionizes the economic structure by constantly destroying the old ones and creating new ones.



Measures taken by the RBI towards de-stressing the banking sector

RBI has taken several initiatives to deal with this stressed assets issue. It has created a database for loans above 50 million (CRILIC database) and has asked the banks and NBFCs to report the status of the loans in regular intervals. If a loan is overdue for more than sixty days, then all lenders have to form a Joint Lenders Forum (JLF) to assess and identify how the problems can be fixed. It has also allowed banks to adjust repayment profiles for performing loans to infrastructure and core sector (5/25 rule). Also, in cases of restructuring, RBI and SEBI have together allowed banks to write in clauses that allow banks to convert loans to equity in case the project gets stressed again. Of course these measures are laudable and can yield better results in the coming years but at the same time we have some other pressing concerns.

As per the World Bank report, it takes an average of 4.3 years to resolve an insolvency issue in India but at the same time it takes less than two years to wind up the same issue in US or China. In extreme cases it takes around 15 years to settle the issue in India! As a result of this, lenders in India able to recover only 25 cents to a dollar lent by them this is the worst in emerging economies.

The main reasons for the delay in bankruptcy proceedings are
           1 Existence of multiple laws
               2 Authority inconsistencies among different agencies.

In India, besides the Companies Act, 2013, bankruptcy is dealt with by three major legislations — the Sick Industrial Companies (SICA), the Recovery of Debts due to Banks and Financial Institutions Act, 1993 (RDDB Act) and the Securitization and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest Act, 2002 (SARFAESI). At the same time we have different agencies such as high courts, company law board, board for industrial and financial reconstruction (BIFR) and the debt recovery tribunal (DRT) and they have overlapping jurisdiction.

So the obvious question is how to address and overcome these issues. For that what we need is a well drafted bankruptcy law.

The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2015

The insolvency and bankruptcy code, 2015 is the most awaited and the most powerful reform measure after GST which will provide a framework for time bound resolution of corporate bankruptcy, ensuring that stakeholder interest are protected and the assets are put to use quickly.

Why it is important?

In a limited liability company as long as the company can meet its debt obligations, equity owners have complete control, and lenders do not have any authority in deciding how the business should run. But when default takes place, control has to be transferred to the creditors; equity owners have no say. But unfortunately this is not how companies work in India. For many decades creditors do not have much power when it comes to the insolvency issue.

Features of the proposed code

The insolvency and bankruptcy code attempts to create a standardized insolvency resolution process (IRP) for businesses. It helps the creditors to decide between the possibilities such as coming up with a viable survival mechanism or by ensuring the quick liquidation of stressed assets. One of the important features of the proposed law is that, any creditor, whether financial or operational, should be able to initiate the insolvency resolution process (IRP) under the proposed code. What is meant by operational creditors? Operational creditors include workmen and employees whose past payments are due. As per the existing legislation, only certain parties such as any secured creditors, central and state government, RBI, public financial institutions etc. are eligible to file the application before National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT). Giving powers to the operational creditors will empower the workmen and employees to initiate insolvency proceedings, settle their dues fast and move on to some other job instead of waiting for their dues for years together as is the case under the existing regime.

The Insolvency Resolution Process (IRP) will be initiated and run for as long as 180 days when a default case happens (this can be extended 90 days further as per the complexity of the case ). The IRP is administered by an Insolvency Professional (IP) who is given substantial powers. A credit committee will be formed exclusively by combining all the affected parties and the voting rights will be proportional to the amount of debt they hold. For the 180 days for which the IRP is in operation, the creditors committee will analyze the company, hear rival proposals, and make up its mind about what has to be done. The rival proposals can include various possibilities such as taking the firm into liquidation or negotiating a debt restructuring, or selling the firm. If, in 180 days, no revival plan achieves support of 75% of the creditors, the firm goes into liquidation.

Why it is important for India?

Failures are the essential part of any market economy. It is not the failures that matters in the market economy but what matters is how the failures are cleared and most importantly how the failures are cleared quickly. The productive assets have to be turned out as soon as possible in order to reap the maximum benefits. US, one of the most efficient free market economies has a very effective Bankruptcy Code that provides a fairly quick liquidation or restructuring of business. US have Chapter 7, with cases being filed in bankruptcy courts; Chapter 11, which deals with reorganization of businesses; and Chapter 15, on cross-border insolvencies. As a result of this creditors are able to recover almost 80 cents to a dollar in case of defaults. We are also in the process of becoming a mature market economy. Well drafted and clearly articulated laws and regulations are required in this process. Implementation of this can increase the GDP growth in India by fostering the emergence of a modern credit market. It can also possible that strong bankruptcy proceedings can improve the ease of doing business in India dramatically. What we need is the vibrant and innovative markets without which economies would eventually stagnate and decline. It is possible that there are details in the new proposed Bankruptcy Code for India which are not quite perfect. But the overall idea and the thrust of the new legislation is excellent.

Views are personal :) Comments are welcome :)

References



Financial Independence - A step towards right direction


Ravi wants to buy a car.
Ravi wants to buy a car which is worth 5 lakhs in today's price after 2 years.

What is the fundamental difference between these two statements?

The first statement is simply a wish, goal or an aspiration. We are not able to process the information further because of the lack of available data. We have three important inferences, when it comes to the second statement.

1) The goal of Ravi
2) The current value of the goal
3) Time period that is available to achieve the goal

These three points are very important because only knowing these we will be able to predict how much Ravi has to save today in order to achieve his goal after two years. In other words the second statement can be termed as a financial goal.

Buying a car, purchasing a house, education and marriage of children, foreign holiday, retirement - for a middle class household like us these are the typical and most common goals. Then why many people are unable to realize their goals?

People are not transforming their goals into financial goals and as a result they do not know how much to save today in order to realize a goal tomorrow

Going back to the earlier example if Ravi wants to buy a car which is worth 5 lakhs in today's price after two years and considering an yearly increase of 10 percent in the passenger car segment, the amount he needs at the end of two years will be 500000*(1+0.10)^2 = 605000
So the amount he needs to save around 23000 per month from today in order to reach his target (assuming a rate of return of 10%)

Sticking to the traditional mode of investment

Most of us put a lot of effort in earning money, but put little effort in managing money. Money should work for us 24*7. Most of us forget this million dollar fact.
While observing the saving patterns, most of the people in the middle income class bracket save their hard earned money in the following instruments. Bank FDs, Chit funds, Gold and LIC policies
Since these types of investments are considered to be safe investments, the amount of returns they offer will also be low. So these instruments are unable to generate significant real rates of returns for the investor. 

Let’s examine how the all time favorite investment vehicles of households done in the past

Bank FDs have given an annualized return of 8.4 percent in the last 30 years

Gold has given an annualized return of 10.9 percent in the last 30 years

A satisfactory performance isn’t it?

But inflation also performed well during these years. Inflation averaged at 7.5 percent in the last 30 years.

So the real returns (after adjusting for inflation using the formula ((1+nominal rate)/(1+inflation rate))-1) for Banks FDs and gold, were 0.83 percent and 3.16 percent respectively in the last 30 years.

At the end of the day what matters is the purchasing power and unfortunately gold and FD was not able to generate that much real returns.

Is there any other financial instrument that offers superior returns in the long run?

Yes there is – Equity and equity related instruments

Stock markets have delivered superior returns in the long run (I underlined the term long run because investing in stocks means investing in companies and the growth of the companies will not happen in a single day) compared to all other financial instruments. When we consider the 30 year annualized returns of sensex, it has given a return of 20 percent which when adjusted for inflation is 11.62 percent which is greater than the nominal returns of Bank FD and gold.

So what we should do in this Diwali?



Some simple but powerful steps taken in the right direction can have great positive results in the future

Step 1 - Start investments in equities regularly: Investment in equities can be done either through direct route or through mutual fund route. For a beginner I recommend mutual fund route, because mutual funds are professionally managed and invests in a basket of securities. As a result it can give superior returns in the long term at the same time can limit losses in the short term also. Investing in mutual funds is one of the best ways to build long term wealth and the preferred method is through Systematic Investment Plan. This will bring regularity and disciplined approach in investment. The common misconception which is prevalent among people is that mutual funds invest only in stocks. But realty is that mutual funds offers a lot of alternatives to investors such as equity oriented, debt oriented, hybrid and money market oriented funds based on investor’s risk appetite and investment horizon.

Step 2 - Please please do not mix your insurance with investment: There are a lot of people investing in various insurance schemes and unfortunately their primary motive is not insurance but investment. This attitude needs to be changed. When we buy a car and pays insurance premium we never asks the insurance company how much will I get after 1 year. But for our insurance we always ask the question what I will get after the term ends. It is always advisable to go for term insurance and have a clear demarcation between insurance and investment

Step 3 - Educate the children about the importance of financial savings: Greatest love of all, the album of Whitney Houston begins by saying children are our future, teach them well and let them lead the way. Teaching children the importance of savings and the basics of prudent investment habits can fetch enormous benefits over a period of time.  

Step 4 - Invest for the long run and realize the power of compounding: All of us will be familiar with the old chess story which is related to the power of compounding. The moral of the story is that compounding effect can multiply the wealth several times in the long run. That’s why it is sometimes referred to as the eighth wonder of the world.

Step 5 - Diversify the savings across different asset class: Throughout this post I have mentioned the importance of financial goals and building long term wealth through equity and equity related instruments. Does that mean can I put all my hard earned savings only in equity? Not at all! Putting all the eggs in one basket is also not an ideal approach towards investment. One should have a proper portfolio comprising of equity, fixed deposits, gold and other asset classes. The point is that one should not ignore one asset class completely.

The savings patterns of people cannot be changed in a single day. The change will take years to evolve. But if we can take some steps in this Diwali occasion towards the right direction, then our life will also be as bright as the lamps that we lighten during this Diwali.

Let this festival season be the stepping stone towards Financial Independence

On that note Happy Investing J

Views are personal J

Two years of Raghuram Rajan - An ardent follower's perspective

Raghuram Rajan at the World Economic Outlook press conference.WEO Press Conference, Washington DC, IMF Headquarters - photo courtesy - Wikipedia
Raghuram Rajan completes two years as the RBI governor on 04th of September 2015. Rajan is perhaps the only RBI governor who came with international experiences and international qualifications. He has garnered accolades from all quarters. 

The famous Swiss investor Marc Feber described him like this "Mr. Raghuram Rajan is an outstanding man who understands central banking. He is probably only one in the world among the crowds of professors at central banks that actually has a good grip on monetary policies and what you can or cannot achieve with them."

As an ardent follower of Mr. Raghuram Rajan, I think this is the best time to discuss the various policies adopted by RBI under his leadership during the last two years.

Let’s explore this discussion in the following dimensions

1)  What was the prevailing macroeconomic environment when Raghuram Rajan took charge as the central bank governor?

2)  What has been changed in the last two years?

3)     What are the contributions of RBI and Raghuram Rajan towards this change and what can we expect from him in the coming years.

The year 2013 was not a good year for our nation. We were exposed to a lot of vulnerabilities such as political logjam, skyrocketing retail inflation, decade low GDP growth, declining foreign investments, alarming current account deficit, declining savings rate, over investments of people in physical assets such as gold, pessimism in the stock market, declining foreign exchange reserves etc. The decision from the US Federal Reserve to taper their bond buying program, the so called QE3 worked as a strong catalyst to the already vulnerable macro economic situation and the rupee witnessed a free fall, depreciated sharply from 60 odd levels to a record low of below 68 levels as a huge amount of flight of capital materialized.

Rajan took charge as the 23rd and the youngest governor of RBI in this challenging situation. 

I still remember after the announcement of his appointment as the new RBI governor, Rajan said on August 06 2013 that "We do not have a magic wand to make the problems disappear instantaneously, but I have absolutely no doubt we will deal with them" following that in his first speech as the central bank governor he told that his emphasis will be mainly on ensuring sustainability and predictability, drafting the monetary policy by balancing the act between inflation and growth, maintaining exchange rate stability and achieving inclusive development.

All his work in these two years was actually consistent with the statements that he has made in the first speech. Let’s consider the various dimensions one by one

Monetary policy and inflation - Corporate and markets were expecting that the newly appointed governor will cut the policy rates aggressively in order to promote growth and to revive the investment cycle. But in his first monetary policy review, he raised the repo rates from 7.25 percent to 7.5. In the subsequent monetary reviews he again increased it to 7.75 and eventually to 8 percent. This was really a shock to the market. But his intentions were clear. He wanted the retail inflation to come down to reasonable levels because he was certain that in the medium to long run, sustainable growth is possible only if inflation stays at a lower level. He started to reduce the interest rates in January 2015 only after getting clear indication that the CPI inflation came down to controllable levels.

Regulation of public sector banks & tackling the NPA problems - RBI has setup PJ Nayak committee in order to review the governance in bank boards and the committee has recommended several plan of actions such as reducing the government stake in public sector banks to 51 percent, setting up of Bank Investment Company (BIC) and providing BIC the autonomy and voting powers to appoint board of directors in PSBs etc. I believe that these steps if implemented correctly will help to resolve the current operational ineffectiveness of public sector banks and will help them to compete at par with their private sector peers thereby reducing the non performing assets issue. Adding to that RBI has set up CRILIC (Central Repository of Information on Large Credits) database to collect, store and disseminate credit data to lenders in order to bring more transparency towards corporate lending. It is true that it may take time to percolate and show the progress. But these steps can be seen as strong steps towards building a transparent and competitive PSB regime.

Financial inclusion - Financial inclusion can have large and significant effects on our economy considering the fact that almost 50 percent of our population does not have access to formal banking system. Unavailability of formal banking systems make them vulnerable to informal alternatives. The principal approval for 2 banks including IDFC and Bandhan finance with a strict rural banking focus as per the report from Bimal Jalan committee and giving in principle approval for 11 payments banks as per the recommendations from Nachiket Mor committee can be seen as the bold steps towards achieving financial inclusion and thereby achieving inclusive development.

Exchange rate stability and foreign exchange reserve - Rupee became the best performing Asia Pacific currency in 2014 after experiencing the free-fall against dollar in 2013. Our foreign exchange reserves also witnessed dramatic improvements in the last two years and it has been increased to 330 billion from the 250 billion levels. In a nutshell we are very well prepared to face any type of external shocks that may arise from the global front.

In the last two years, a lot of things have changed. We are in a much stable and better position compared to 2013. Our economy is in a very good shape and the GDP growth rate expected to be in the 7.5 to 8 percent as per analysis from various agencies, we have a stable government at the centre, government is focusing on achieving fiscal prudence and trying to reduce the fiscal deficit by 3 percent of GDP by FY18. Our inflation dramatically came down to manageable levels and the current account deficit is in manageable levels, thanks to the falling crude oil prices and commodity prices. Stock markets delivered a stellar performance in the last 2 years giving handful of returns to investors. Investor sentiments have been improved dramatically and we are witnessing good amount of foreign capital inflows. We have strong foreign exchange reserves compared to the 2013 levels and the rupee is more stable compared to other emerging markets currencies. We are better prepared to absorb the unanticipated shocks that may arise from the global economic front.

Of course all the improvements that we are witnessing are the result of the collective efforts made by both RBI and government along with other agencies. Considering all the initiatives and policies taken by RBI and governor we can definitely say that the role of RBI was critical and vital in turning around the macro economic situation of our nation in the last two years.


What can we expect from RBI in the coming days? With the falling commodity prices and retail inflation, there is a lot of room for the further rate cuts in the near future. At the same time transmission of the rate cuts is also very important. Even though RBI has cut repo rates by 75 bps, banks were reluctant to reduce the lending rates in response to that. This is a cause of concern. I think RBI should work with banks to tackle this issue.



When can a nation achieve its optimal growth potential? It’s when the fiscal policy as well as the monetary policy goes hand in hand. Till now the measures taken by RBI towards achieving the long term monetary stability and predictability is laudable. I'm sure that great minds like Raghuram Rajan can steer our nation to greater heights.

Views are personal J Comments always welcome

References

Crash in Chinese Stock Market - Time to create a global framework for a predictable financial system

China – the world’s biggest economy in terms of purchasing power parity and the world’s second largest economy in nominal terms - is going through some serious economic turbulence. Challenging macroeconomic environment, slowing rate of growth and the freefall of Chinese stock market reveal some serious concerns about the viability of the policies adopted by Chinese policymakers over the years to fuel their growth.

What went wrong in China?

The recent boom, bust and the prevailing uncertainty in the Chinese stock market shows how the policy makers can influence, perturb and manipulate the financial system and can create serious repercussions around the globe. The Chinese stock market had witnessed one of the biggest stock market rally (I would rather use the word frenzy) in the history with the Chinese stocks returning more than 150 percent over the last year. The main catalyst for this rally was Margin lending which means borrowing to invest. Margin lending is present in almost every financial system, but what made Chinese stock market unique in this case was the type of investors participating in this borrow and trade fury. Usually margin trading performed by highly experienced institutional investors who deal with millions of money and with almost all the available information access. But in China it was the retail investor’s cup of tea. The vulnerability of the Chinese stock market is best described by Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies by saying that, “Over a quarter of China's stock market capitalization is now supported through margin financing, turning an equity market into a de facto debt market.”

The forces which directly or indirectly caused this margin lending spree are

1) Fuelling the growth after the 2008 financial meltdown using fiscal and monetary stimulus

The 2008 global financial meltdown witnessed a renewed interest in Keynesian economic ideas. In order to revive the demand and put their economy back on track, governments and central banks across the world started to pump in money heavily through fiscal and monetary stimulus. China also was not an exception. Years of interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus packages created a lot of money in the system. The pumped money has to go somewhere in the system and eventually a lot of money went into the stock market.

Source – Trading Economics
2) Government’s role in promoting margin lending - China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) allowed people to invest in equities through margin lending route from October 2011 after conducting a pilot program in March 2010. Down the line the government relaxed the rules of margin lending to promote retail participation in the stock market and millions of money pumped into the stock market through brokers and retail investors. The number of retail participants in the market increased from 82.66 million in 08-may-2015 to 92.357 million by 24-july-2015. An interesting fact is that nearly two third of people who involved in margin trading (which required a lot of experience and insights) did not complete even the high school degree. As more people took part in this stock buying frenzy, Between June 2014 and June 2015, the amount of officially sanctioned margin trading in the Chinese stock market ballooned from 403 billion yuan to 2.2 trillion yuan.

Source - Bloomberg
Unlike foreign exchange markets where central banks frequently intervene, the governments strive not to intervene in the stock markets since intervention transmit negative signals and carry market-related side effects.

But when the Chinese market went into a freefall, government announced several measures including interest rate cuts, capping short selling, relaxed rules which allow pension funds and social security funds to invest more in stocks, and allowed people to use their houses as a collateral to borrow money to buy stocks. Most significantly, it used a state-owned securities financing company to lend $42 billion to 21 brokerages so that they could purchase blue-chip stocks.
Government was trying their best to control the market. Why?

The Intervention of government in the stock market to restore the equilibrium

There were two reasons that can be attributed to the government intervention in the market. One is being the sociopolitical considerations and another is being the economic considerations.

Sociopolitical considerations – over the past years, the majority of people who invested in the Chinese market are predominantly retail investors. The various policies taken by the government send a strong signal that in case of any serious downturn, government will come to their rescue. So if investors lose money, it can create a lot serious disturbances in the socio political arena. As a result government has no alternate option, but to intervene in the market.

Economic considerations - Chinese economy is going through a challenging phase. As per the IMF, the growth rate is expected at 6.3 percent in FY16 which is way below the average growth rate of 9.04 percent achieved during the period 1989 to 2015. So Government had to showcase the stability of the financial system or else it can send serious negative sentiments around the globe which may deteriorate the current macro environment situation further.

Why should we care?

Globalization and technological advancement acted as a reason to expand the breadth and depth of the financial markets and allowed them to work in a highly interconnected mode. The main fallacy of this is that even a small disruption in one market can send very serious repercussions across the globe.

Consider the following graph that shows the movement of CNX Nifty and SSE Composite index from 01-June-2015 to 31-July-2015.


One thing which can be observed from this graph is that the Indian market was highly volatile during this period and a significant part can be attributed to the issues in china. The average Volatility index (VIX) for this period was 16.34 which was greater than the 30 days and 200 days moving average of 15.88 and 16.20 respectively.

What Policymakers have to do?

The Chinese problem is not the only example of the preposterous policies taken by the government focusing only on the short term rewards and benefits. We have observed many of these kinds of policies in the past. 1997 Asian financial crisis to the US subprime mortgage crisis to the current euro zone crisis has something to say regarding this. Many can argue that the size of the China's stock market is not as big, relative to the Chinese economy. So the economic implications are not that systemic in nature. But that is not an excuse for policy makers in taking imprudent decisions.

So what we need in the long run is a rule based predictable and sustainable monetary and financial arrangements. But unfortunately policy makers across the globe haven’t done enough thinking on that and the current monetary policy practices focus mainly on the short term benefits. As a result it exposes substantial risk to the global economy. As the honorable governor of the RBI, Raghuram Rajan pointed out in his speech at the Economic Club of New York; “we are being pushed towards competitive monetary easing. But what we need are stronger, well-capitalized multilateral institutions with widespread legitimacy. In order to build such institutions we need global co-operation and participation from the policy makers. Only by creating these types of institutions we can absorb the possible future and a stable and create a predictable financial system.”

Regards,
Harikrishnan
Views are personal :)

References