2014 was a spectacular year for the Indian equities. we have witnessed benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty making life time highs. A new wave of optimism has started to observe in financial markets. It was a broad based rally with almost every stock participating in the euphoria of investors. The market outlook began to change from October 2013 after a series of rumours that Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance will come to power at the centre. Indian equities saw its values sky-rocketing after witnessing a clear Majority for BJP at the centre. This optimism coupled with the expectations of cooling of inflation, downward spiral of crude oil prices, hopes that RBI will be able to cut its lending rates after witnessing inflation is settling around their comfort zone, business friendly government at the top added as a catalyst to the euphoria.
Rising markets always means a large number of IPOs. But 2014 did not witness any major momentum shift in the number of initial offerings.
There were mainly 5 companies participated in intial public offering in 2014. They are
Wonderla Holidays
Snowman Logistics
Sharda Crop
Shemaroo Entertainment
Monte Carlo
lets see their listing price and other details
From this figure we can see that all the IPOs except Monte Carlo had a very good run so far. Especially Wonderla and Snowman logistics helped to double investors wealth.
So the question arises is what is the reason for a very less number of IPOs compared with a very strong equity market. The possible reason could be that usually the entire IPO procedure usually takes an average of 12 to 18 months. We witnessed a significant change in the sentiment only by the end of May 2014 especially after the Parliament election. Retail investor participation is a very crucial factor in the success of any IPO. But according to Kotak securities, the retail participation in the market is still very minimal. According to them it is too early to expect retail investors to enter the stock market as a whole, since their wealth and with it their risk appetites, haven't increased. According to Anand Rathi Financial Services, Retail investors right now are taking mutual fund routes to enter market. So it will take time for them to invest in direct equities.
So once retail investors enter into the market by taking direct equity exposure we can expect a turnaround in IPO market also. So 2015 and 2016 should be a better year for primary markets compared to previous years.
Challenges ahead : There are a lot of macro economic indicators suggesting that India can expect a turnaround in growth in the coming years. Estimates from IMF world bank and from other agencies supporting this. But all will depends on the global economy also. China is in a slow growth mode. Euro-zone also facing deflationary pressures. Even though falling crude oil is positive for Indian economy, it can have serious repercussion in US E&P sector and the junk bond market associated with that. A positive synergy among nations is necessary in order to create a better macro economic environment.
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